What Happens in Vegas .. Happens Everywhere

I just spent a few days in Vegas at the TRAFFIC convention..  man that town will chew you up and spit you out if you let it. ;)

The night I left town Josh sent me this link which focuses on an interesting observation.

  While $4+ million worth of domain names just sold at the Las Vegas TRAFFIC auction, the real story is that actual bidding totalled more than $30 million..  I bid at least a million dollars for names that I didn’t win.. Others did too.  All-tolled there was more than $20 million of unrequited love, bids never to matter, a desire to own domain names that would not be satiated.

Again for impact, more than 20 million dollars of cash-money was bid in about a day (8 hours over two days) by a handful of people who wanted to own just a smattering of domain names.  Some of these names were good, many were just average, few would have blown the average man-on-the-strip’s hair back.  The would-be suitors were there with cash in hand, and many (like yours truly) went home empty handed..  or nearly empty handed.

All this happened during a week in which markets corrected, new credit/banking problems came to light, mortgage rates inched higher, inflation made headlines and other generally bad stuff happened or was foreshadowed to happen in the broader economy. It happened with less than 600 would be bidders worldwide in attendance!  How can that be?  Several reasons..

–1–  Because for the most-part, domain names are un-leveraged..  they have no debt on them..  and sellers can afford to tell you how they really feel by declining what you view as a generous overture. There is no incentive to “sell now” when your cost of carrying the investment is nil to low.

–2–  Because the shift of offline publishing to online is only getting warmed up.  Much promoted but under-delivered, just 7% of advertisers are online vs. 93% offline..  Domain registrants who understand the significance of their investment are sitting on the sidelines whispering “come to Papa” under their breath, knowing that you are not the first (or last) guy to try to wrest a name away with the siren call of cold hard cash.

–3–  Because a good domain name is like a storefront..  and you can’t buy a decent storefront for 50,100, 200 thousand dollars these days. You can’t buy a bad storefront in Rachel Nevada for that, you can’t even buy the bathroom fixtures in a storefront on the fabled Vegas strip for that. Not good ones..  not a bad ones.. Not any-ones.  Only about 7% of all domain names registered (11 million names worldwide) mean anything to anyone at all..  The rest are pretty much speculative crap that somebody has convinced themselves are good.. a virtual boulevard of broken dreams – or breadcrumbs of back-fill massaged into the meat of good portfolios; painstakingly built by smart investors like you. 

Those truly good domain names are what constitute the entire “visited” Internet. The “Internet that matters” exists on the domain names which matter to anyone other than you.. More on that another time.

If there’s one thing I know for-sure folks,  it’s that Las Vegas is not the only home of lonely hearts and unrequited love. What happened in Vegas the other day, happens all around the world each and every day..  Hundreds of millions - billions each year are offered for domain names which will never sell.

What’s a domain lover to do?!?  Sigh..  Perhaps I’ll have more luck at the Affiliate Summit Domain Auction at the Rio Suites this coming week.

2008 and Beyond

  It’s wonderful being back after an extended vacation break. I used to scoff at vacationing (vacations are for the weak), but I was amazed that those friends and colleagues who took longer absences around the holidays skated circles around my productivity around March and April of the next year.

I won’t bore you folks with the details of my trip, but suffice it to say, I was glad to get away for the holiday sojourn and will probably spend more time traveling this year.. (business and pleasure).

New years bring new resolutions, new promises — cleaning out old cobwebs, retiring issues and ramping-up for a new cycle of work/changes. One of my resolutions this year is to slow down on the blogging.  Charity starts at home and I need to spend more of my non-working time with my wife, kids, family and those close friends and acquaintances in our family’s life..  I just can’t do that, run a domain media co and continue to scribe each day.  Since I began SevenMile.com, several others in the industry have joined the blogging ranks ..  many of those folks have done a terrific job creating news-sites and the existing journals and periodicals just get better and better.  There are even mash-ups now about domaining where we can get the most recent commentary and daily news across many blogs/journals/sites.

I plan to continue to write, albeit much less frequently with more personal, concentrated and in-depth thoughts relating to specific industry affecting issues. I look forward to several such posts over the course of the year..  but I will leave the daily color and roundups to those who do it so much better than I could.  It has been fun sharing (daily) and part of me will miss that but hopefuly my personal relationships and biz will thrive with the extra time in what is sure to be a challenging 2008.

Looking back on the predictions for 2007 made in late 2006,  many of those thoughts came true..  increased trouble for the most flagrant violators of IP rights, continued consolidation within the industry as the big get bigger, coupled with a spreading of the cottage industry footprint of work at home hopefuls with stars in their eyes; broadening our great industry’s base as it continues to mature.

If 2007 and my winter vacation of the year taught me anything, it’s how incredibly lucky we all are to participate in a space where anyone..  anyone can still “make it” if they have the gumption and desire to dig-in and better their life.  There are no defined paths in the domain industry.. and domain names continue to act as the nucleus of all Internet commerce. If nothing in business happens without ‘a sale’,  nothing on the Internet happens without ‘a domain name’..  and it’s still an adolescent industry with lots of room for those who want to make a great life for themselves. 

The game today is similar,  but just a little different.  I encourage you to stake your claim this year if you haven’t in earnest and continue to work hard for a few years..  If you adopt that glass half-full outlook and apply yourself,  I predict you too will be reciting the words of that Talking Heads song…  as you “wake up in a beautiful house”, “find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile”.. and you ask yourself .. How did I get here? :)

Have a great year folks…

Christmas Vacation

Folks it’s time for me to recharge the batteries..  I’ll be leaving the blog today so that I have some time to wrap up a few left-over items..  then I take to the skies for my Christmas vacation..  I’ll try to upload some shots from the trip and stop in to post if anything major comes up but barring that, you will need to get your daily domain fix from one of the many new outlets for industry related news and info..  see the blogroll at left ;)

I’m gonna miss you guys..  I wish you all a safe and happy New Year with much domain prosperity in 2008 …  It’s going to be a very exciting year.

Monday Linkfest

Elliot blogs about the 3 letter .com realm.

http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/10/b-king-on-three-letter-com-sales/

***FS*** There are only 17,576 3 letters in .com ..  This piece probably explains which a have gotten scores of spam sales offers for my three letter and 3 number domains over the past few days.
Google reduces the importance of sub domains in it’s ranking system.

Excerpt: “As eBay and others have aggressively used subdomains to dominate branded AND unbranded search results, and Google has improved their sitelinks technology, any relevancy gain by treating subdomains as a separate site will be going away. Google is going to start  treating subdomains like subfolders, and limit the number of results from any site to just two.” http://www.domainnews.com/general/2007120823/google-changing-handling-of-sub-domains/#more-1905

***FS*** Enjoy getting google traffic.  Don’t rely on it as the primarily source for traffic for your website/business. The best traffic is the traffic tha Google wants to “buy”  and that traffic comes from generic type-in traffic producing domain names.

Microsoft introduces free Live.in email addresses to Indians.

http://www.domainnews.com/general/2007120817/microsoft-india-introduces-new-livein-e-mail-domain/

***FS***  I think many more folks would run email on their own proprietary domains (for email) if they understood how to go about it.  There is a knowlege gap where getting email or getting a domain is not simple enough for regular folks.  Domain values will have their next dramatic leg-up when an intermediary comes along that makes the registration, management and renewal of names and email easier for the average person…  and once that application “takes off” in a significant mainstream way. Perhaps a mechanism that allows anyone to get an email on anyone else’s name or pays a fee for each email account to the name-holder.

Josh: Elliot Silver takes some of Jay W’s advice…

.. and thanks him for it. Elliot bought an existing site that google didn’t include in it’s results.  By following Jay’s advice, his name was reincluded, now appears as the #1 listing, and he’s getting additional traffic.  Even the experts learn something from time-to-time. There’s alot of learning from each other going on in the domain/development realm. http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/08/thank-you-jay/

More from Elliot:  Honesty and integrity critical when doing business in the domain realm.  To be fair it’s critical everywhere http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/08/domain-industry-lesson-1/

Sahar opens his blog wider,

..and hopes to spark discussions and learning in his new area call “Debates”. http://www.conceptualist.com/category/debates/

***FS***  Another great idea from Sahar

79.1 percent of marketers plan to increase their online budgets for 2008.

No surprise here, but good to see nonetheless.

http://www.btobonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071207/FREE/71207006

ParkingWhois.com

Smart idea that’s in beta.  Tells you if a domain is parked or not, and where.  Problem is i tried 5 examples.  Two worked, and the other 3 said the domain is not parked,.. and it is.  It was a bit slow on a couple of the searches.  They need to make it more accurate or this service won’t get used.

Music business in Japan sees 1% rise in sales

…industry observers attribute this to mobile music downloads. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/click_online/7130596.stm

ConsumerReports.org

…Paid subscriptions, no ads.  3 million viewers who pay for web access. 4.5 million who buy the print vrsion. 208 million in revenue and operating margin of 28 million. http://www.news.com/Success-without-ads/2100-1038_3-6222063.html?tag=nefd.top

***FS***  Only 13% margins..  Sounds low for a publishing outfit. 

Ad company installs tracking capabilities at the ISP level.

SP’s hold alot of power.  With great ower comes great responsibility.. Without great responsibility, comes great regulation. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071209.wsniff1209/BNStory/Technology/home

“The Ultimate Domain Name Guide”

I think it’s from 2006.  It’s relevant today.

The headline is over the top.  That said, it’s a good overview, especially for people just getting started.  The writer, Sebastian Robinson, thinks that the right domain name is critical for your business. Excerpt: “Domain names have become more than just an address on the web. Today they can make or break a business.”

Josh says:  I don’t think a domain name can make a business. (Unless your business is buying and selling domains, or parking names that have type in traffic.)   But, i agree with the basic sentiment that having the right name / domain name is important, if not very important.  The writer is mistaken that the .XXX extension has been granted. http://www.micromart.co.uk/features/article/default.aspx?id=22516

A Visit to Art Basel in Miami Makes Mike Berkins Appreciate how Cheap Domains Are

   http://www.thedomains.com/2007/12/08/domains-are-cheap/

This piece deserves to be set apart from the Linkfest..  Berkins has that “oh-my-gosh” moment and realizes how cheap domain names are when viewed against overpriced pieces of modern-art. Art hangs on a wall and costs you money..  Domains activate on the Web and “make you money”. To be fair..  the art market is held-up by inflation and aspration..  returns are made via the sale of pieces to a richer buyer or greater fool..  Domains often contain revenue streams in the form of traffic which help pay for the up-front acquisition cost..  Art typically doesn’t ..  unless it’s a Monet and you lease it to a museum.

I know many of us have experienced the same epiphany about the value of domain names relative to other real-world items..  This one is just the latest but is very poignant.

Give it a few years .. people will start to figure out that perhaps less than 10 million domain names have any generic or descriptive value to anyone. When that concept becomes widely accepted you’ll see an even greater appreciation in the values of those names.  Get them while you still can.

Yet Another Reason to Buy J&J Stock

Danno writes: 

Danno_2  “”Watched a TV comercial this morning, advertising this website: http://www.discovernursing.com/

Johnson & Johnson ‘gets’ generic domain names. Maybe someone should invite the person in charge of their marketing to speak at domainfest about how generic domain names have added value to their business(s).”"

***FS***   So right Danno..  these folks have done a terrific job with Baby.com and all their names really.  They sooooo “get” it.  A few major corps have had marketing staff with great naming instincts.. I remember P&G had one of the biggest generic name portfolios back in the mid nineties.  They ultimately let many of those valuable names expire..  I scooped some of them up at the depth of the bust (ie. razorblades.com) .. They still own some of their big single word generics but many of their compound phrases expired.. I can only hypothesize that the individual who acquired their portfolio was let go or left to go to another company.

Chris Stewart’s New Blog

http://marketforlemons.com/?p=4 

Domainer Chris Stewart runs through the numbers for us and explains why Name Media’s leveraging up is a “good thing”. Chris is a very bright guy and this is an excellent post and argument. Posted in it’s entirity with permission:

Why Companies Borrow, and Why I Think NameMedia Borrowed Smart

This is the first post on our blog so I thought I would start off with something that is both timely and controversial: DEBT. Timely because of last week’s announcement that NameMedia had completed a deal to establish a $125 million credit facility; and controversial because of the topsy-turvy ride we have taken in the global equity markets this past month mostly attributed to the spillover from credit concerns in the US. Therefore, I believe that speaking to the topic of debt is a great starting point.


Before I go into some financial analysis let me first state that, admittedly, debt is an uncomfortable topic for me. I am not fond of debt, personally. As a business manager, however, debt can and often is the best friend to a growing company. It is cheap – let’s come to this a little later, and it is often easy to acquire. Quite simply, debt shouldn’t be a dirty word. And using debt to finance acquisitions or new capital projects should not be frowned upon.


Debt is cheap. What do I mean by this? Well, I should be more specific and say that debt is almost always relatively cheaper than other financing sources. It is cheaper than other financing sources because the interest payment on debt is also a tax deductible expense. The impact of this on the cost of debt can be significant. In financial terms, the amount of “benefit” you receive from being able to deduct your interest payments on your income statements is equal to your marginal tax rate multiplied by your borrowing rate. Wow, that was a lot to say. So, instead of trying to explain this let me illustrate this for you.

 Let’s imagine a scenario where you are seeking $100,000 to finance new projects. You are given two choices. Your first choice is to use debt financing at a borrowing rate of 15% p.a. and your second choice is to sell shares of your company to an investor who demands a 12% p.a. return on his/her investment achieved through an annual dividend payment. And, let’s further imagine that you already have an opportunity to invest the funds into a new domain acquisition, which will cost $100,000 and yield $20,000 in annual gross cash flow. We will assume you are a profitable company with a 35% marginal tax rate. Which method of financing would you choose based solely on the “numbers”? Let’s take a look…

graph.GIF

From this over-simplified analysis above you may be surprised to see that, despite having a higher borrowing rate it is the debt financing choice providing the most benefit to your company. This isn’t always the case because we could fiddle with the borrowing rate, the required rate of return from the investor, or the tax rate to achieve numerous different results. But what I wanted to show you here is that even when things appear to be cheaper (such as the investor who only wants a 12% dividend) they may not always be.


One of the quick and dirty ways to figure out your effective borrowing rate on debt is to do this quick calculation. Multiply your corporate tax rate by the rate quoted to you by the debt financier. If you are borrowing at 18% and your tax rate is 25% then your benefit is 25%*18%=4.5%. Then reduce your borrowing rate by the benefit you just calculated, or 18%-4.5%=13.5%, which is your effective borrowing rate. Recall, this benefit is attributed to your ability (in most cases) to deduct interest expense on the income statement.


Clearly, I have ignored all of the “soft” considerations when choosing between debt and equity financing. Some people, like me, don’t particularly like debt. Others prefer the benefit of having the inputs of investors who may be more experienced. No amount of value can be placed on having mentors guide you in the right direction and surely your debt financier won’t be answering the phone at midnight to “discuss the business.”


What’s more, my calculation doesn’t demonstrate when and IF you should choose either form of financing. There is a separate calculation to figure out if you should borrow to finance a new acquisition altogether. I can, however, give you a tip to remember: if the net return on the asset is greater than the effective borrowing rate then you should probably invest. That’s a great topic for my next post so come back to see me massage some numbers to make that one work out for you.


Speaking of debt, most recently we learned that NameMedia has established a new credit facility for $125 million, which will be used to pay down a prior credit facility and for continuing operations and new acquisitions. And while I am not privy to the specifics I can probably estimate that this deal is both positive for NameMedia and the domain industry overall. Having perused some of the other domain blogs I have yet to see anyone come out and give a good/bad opinion on this announcement. I have seen some comments from individual posters who believe that this news had negative implications. I couldn’t disagree more.


As I illustrated above, debt financing is typically cheaper than equity financing. And for a company, such as NameMedia, I would argue that equity financing is significantly costlier to the company than debt. Recall, NameMedia has recently filed for their IPO and I believe that investors would place a discount rate (a.k.a. required rate of return) of anywhere between 15-20% on the firm’s equity value. Such a significant discount rate would lower the equity value of the company, requiring NameMedia to issue a greater number of shares to raise the capital necessary to paydown its previous credit facility. This scenario (on a much larger scale) resembles the average Joe paying one credit card bill with another credit card carrying a higher interest rate. Using new debt, rather than equity, to paydown the previous debt is the better alternative.


I also believe that this new credit facility is positive because it signals to me that the creditors believe NameMedia’s cash flows are both stable and long-term, at least enough to cover the debt going forward.


I would not be surprised if we see NameMedia cancel or reduce the size of its IPO altogether, and here’s why. From my calculations, I believe that NameMedia’s cost of equity financing is north of 15% and as high as 20%. There is no similar tax benefit to equity financing when compared to debt financing. And if you are borrowing at 15-20% from the markets then any and all new capital projects suddenly have this rate of return as the benchmark for new investments,…anyone know someone selling generic domain portfolios at 5x? I didn’t think so. The prior need to “go public” was to paydown the prior expiring credit facility and with this need now answered to by the new credit facility I see no reason for the company to require a significant source of capital at such a high cost at this time. I think it’s also important to note that the planned sale of equity was not an exit strategy for the current shareholders, as stated in the IPO, it was merely an exercise in raising capital”"

***FS*** My personal aversion to debt is several fold.  As the credit markets have shown this year,  you can’t necessarily control when the bank will stop lending ..and for unforseen reasons, or when they’ll call a loan on you..  If everyone levered up and carried debt,  we could get to a precarious place where no company operates to it’s full potential.  There is no such thing as “no strings attached” and when you start taking money from strangers, their covenants on what you can/can’t do with your business often become restrictive and fail to allow the company to take risks and make investments otherwise possible if they were unleveraged.  This can hold the company’s true potentiual back..  lastly..  not everyone operates from a tax jurisdiction..  Drug companies, and other multinationals often use transfer pricing to offset the tax benefit that debt provides..  Ditto with a domain biz which can be run from anywhere..  Even a little island 250 miles south of cuba. :)

The 20 Most Influential People in Domains

Nice list.. missing the founders of Domainstate.com and also I think Paul Sloan/ Josh Quitner (writer and former editor) of Business 2.0 should have made this list..  Their coverage of the disruptive technology embodied in the name-biz helped to shine the light on the industry for other ”legitimate web” participants to see – and their stories provided the founding spark for more than one of today’s market participants.

List here:  http://logistiklabs.blogspot.com/2007/12/20-most-influential-people-in-domain.html

As a quick aside..  Josh Quittner recently wrote a hard hitting critique of the flimsy business model and dishonest culture at Facebook, only to be publicly dressed down by Time Inc.  I am continually struck that the tech-community acts like such a fawning sycophant as it relates to Facebook.  They treat this co. like the last girl at the bar on a Friday night.  We need more Josh Quittners to tell us to give our heads a shake and to take our collective tongues out of Facebook’s caboose long enough to see what it is we’re taking home…

Fairwinds Sending Spam to Drum Up Memberships?

http://www.ricksblog.com/my_weblog/2007/12/is-fairwinds-pa.html

Those trying to do good, caught doing bad? .. I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried..  as reported on Rick’s blog.  Let he who is without sin cast the first unsolicited email.  I think Rick is chagrin that those who would label the domain space as uncouth,  go ahead and themselves “do the uncouth”..  looking forward to reading more.

Domain Extensions – You Can’t Change Human Behavior

You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink..  Insert your favorite related Mark Twain quote here.. 

Snoopy on domainstate.com is a pretty clever chap. He’s put together some info on how how particular domain extensions have performed over the last couple of years (in relation to 3 letter names). Interesting how the more established extensions generally seem to perform best year after year yet still people invest money into extensions such .info/.biz etc,

http://domainstate.com/showthread.php3?s=&threadid=84814

***FS*** This is an interesting human behavior Snoopy has touched on..  It’s a similar dynamic that makes folks go long a stock as opposed to short, and the same kind of logic that has folks surging into stocks when they’re high as opposed to falling (fallen).