What Happens in Vegas .. Happens Everywhere

I just spent a few days in Vegas at the TRAFFIC convention..  man that town will chew you up and spit you out if you let it. ;)

The night I left town Josh sent me this link which focuses on an interesting observation.

  While $4+ million worth of domain names just sold at the Las Vegas TRAFFIC auction, the real story is that actual bidding totalled more than $30 million..  I bid at least a million dollars for names that I didn’t win.. Others did too.  All-tolled there was more than $20 million of unrequited love, bids never to matter, a desire to own domain names that would not be satiated.

Again for impact, more than 20 million dollars of cash-money was bid in about a day (8 hours over two days) by a handful of people who wanted to own just a smattering of domain names.  Some of these names were good, many were just average, few would have blown the average man-on-the-strip’s hair back.  The would-be suitors were there with cash in hand, and many (like yours truly) went home empty handed..  or nearly empty handed.

All this happened during a week in which markets corrected, new credit/banking problems came to light, mortgage rates inched higher, inflation made headlines and other generally bad stuff happened or was foreshadowed to happen in the broader economy. It happened with less than 600 would be bidders worldwide in attendance!  How can that be?  Several reasons..

–1–  Because for the most-part, domain names are un-leveraged..  they have no debt on them..  and sellers can afford to tell you how they really feel by declining what you view as a generous overture. There is no incentive to “sell now” when your cost of carrying the investment is nil to low.

–2–  Because the shift of offline publishing to online is only getting warmed up.  Much promoted but under-delivered, just 7% of advertisers are online vs. 93% offline..  Domain registrants who understand the significance of their investment are sitting on the sidelines whispering “come to Papa” under their breath, knowing that you are not the first (or last) guy to try to wrest a name away with the siren call of cold hard cash.

–3–  Because a good domain name is like a storefront..  and you can’t buy a decent storefront for 50,100, 200 thousand dollars these days. You can’t buy a bad storefront in Rachel Nevada for that, you can’t even buy the bathroom fixtures in a storefront on the fabled Vegas strip for that. Not good ones..  not a bad ones.. Not any-ones.  Only about 7% of all domain names registered (11 million names worldwide) mean anything to anyone at all..  The rest are pretty much speculative crap that somebody has convinced themselves are good.. a virtual boulevard of broken dreams – or breadcrumbs of back-fill massaged into the meat of good portfolios; painstakingly built by smart investors like you. 

Those truly good domain names are what constitute the entire “visited” Internet. The “Internet that matters” exists on the domain names which matter to anyone other than you.. More on that another time.

If there’s one thing I know for-sure folks,  it’s that Las Vegas is not the only home of lonely hearts and unrequited love. What happened in Vegas the other day, happens all around the world each and every day..  Hundreds of millions - billions each year are offered for domain names which will never sell.

What’s a domain lover to do?!?  Sigh..  Perhaps I’ll have more luck at the Affiliate Summit Domain Auction at the Rio Suites this coming week.

My Kingdom for An Eyeball

What a world we live in..  and what a great deal a man (or woman) can learn in a month away from the blog-sphere.. Deals announced, partnerships strategized and all roads lead to the ability to reach our fellow-man.   I’ve been traveling for family issues (nothing serious folks) over the past month –  I’ve been home and away from home. It will be great to reflect on the industry and vent some thoughts about the way things are ..  and the way they might go in the coming few weeks (go easy on me.. I’m traveling here).

Some thoughts for you to consider..  This blog has been inactive for 30 days and has somehow managed to add 400 subscribers since I took a posting sebatical.  In that time it attracted 1200+ spam posts..  It’s all about the eyeballs folks. 

In a world where people still operate 800/900 numbers to capture users “phoning in” common numbers (Good work folks) – In a world where new billboards are appearing on the LA skyline month to month –  In a world where those Sunset Blvd billboards generate more revenue than the buildings they are emblazoned on; what are your unique domain-name visitors worth?  The battle to reach (and win) the hearts/minds of our fellow man has been raging since Gutenberg invented the printing press. How much greater is a medium’s value when that ability to connect can be quantified and judged against its peer group?  Is a unique visitor the same as a phone-in, a qualified lead or paid introduction? 

Stay tuned folks. You live in exciting times.

Disruptive Technology to Change Advertising as We Know it

http://domainstate.com/showthread.php3?s=8444324b3e3a6a31b47609a0ffc57499&threadid=84905

We can all feel the changes reverberate across the Web..  Domain names registered by small registrants and large aggregators who create content and take eyeballs/market share away from established media/content co’s are the ultimate disruptive technology. It’s a great time to be in this industry..  I’m really looking forward to seeing what happens.

Monday Linkfest

Elliot blogs about the 3 letter .com realm.

http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/10/b-king-on-three-letter-com-sales/

***FS*** There are only 17,576 3 letters in .com ..  This piece probably explains which a have gotten scores of spam sales offers for my three letter and 3 number domains over the past few days.
Google reduces the importance of sub domains in it’s ranking system.

Excerpt: “As eBay and others have aggressively used subdomains to dominate branded AND unbranded search results, and Google has improved their sitelinks technology, any relevancy gain by treating subdomains as a separate site will be going away. Google is going to start  treating subdomains like subfolders, and limit the number of results from any site to just two.” http://www.domainnews.com/general/2007120823/google-changing-handling-of-sub-domains/#more-1905

***FS*** Enjoy getting google traffic.  Don’t rely on it as the primarily source for traffic for your website/business. The best traffic is the traffic tha Google wants to “buy”  and that traffic comes from generic type-in traffic producing domain names.

Microsoft introduces free Live.in email addresses to Indians.

http://www.domainnews.com/general/2007120817/microsoft-india-introduces-new-livein-e-mail-domain/

***FS***  I think many more folks would run email on their own proprietary domains (for email) if they understood how to go about it.  There is a knowlege gap where getting email or getting a domain is not simple enough for regular folks.  Domain values will have their next dramatic leg-up when an intermediary comes along that makes the registration, management and renewal of names and email easier for the average person…  and once that application “takes off” in a significant mainstream way. Perhaps a mechanism that allows anyone to get an email on anyone else’s name or pays a fee for each email account to the name-holder.

Josh: Elliot Silver takes some of Jay W’s advice…

.. and thanks him for it. Elliot bought an existing site that google didn’t include in it’s results.  By following Jay’s advice, his name was reincluded, now appears as the #1 listing, and he’s getting additional traffic.  Even the experts learn something from time-to-time. There’s alot of learning from each other going on in the domain/development realm. http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/08/thank-you-jay/

More from Elliot:  Honesty and integrity critical when doing business in the domain realm.  To be fair it’s critical everywhere http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/08/domain-industry-lesson-1/

Sahar opens his blog wider,

..and hopes to spark discussions and learning in his new area call “Debates”. http://www.conceptualist.com/category/debates/

***FS***  Another great idea from Sahar

79.1 percent of marketers plan to increase their online budgets for 2008.

No surprise here, but good to see nonetheless.

http://www.btobonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071207/FREE/71207006

ParkingWhois.com

Smart idea that’s in beta.  Tells you if a domain is parked or not, and where.  Problem is i tried 5 examples.  Two worked, and the other 3 said the domain is not parked,.. and it is.  It was a bit slow on a couple of the searches.  They need to make it more accurate or this service won’t get used.

Music business in Japan sees 1% rise in sales

…industry observers attribute this to mobile music downloads. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/click_online/7130596.stm

ConsumerReports.org

…Paid subscriptions, no ads.  3 million viewers who pay for web access. 4.5 million who buy the print vrsion. 208 million in revenue and operating margin of 28 million. http://www.news.com/Success-without-ads/2100-1038_3-6222063.html?tag=nefd.top

***FS***  Only 13% margins..  Sounds low for a publishing outfit. 

Ad company installs tracking capabilities at the ISP level.

SP’s hold alot of power.  With great ower comes great responsibility.. Without great responsibility, comes great regulation. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071209.wsniff1209/BNStory/Technology/home

“The Ultimate Domain Name Guide”

I think it’s from 2006.  It’s relevant today.

The headline is over the top.  That said, it’s a good overview, especially for people just getting started.  The writer, Sebastian Robinson, thinks that the right domain name is critical for your business. Excerpt: “Domain names have become more than just an address on the web. Today they can make or break a business.”

Josh says:  I don’t think a domain name can make a business. (Unless your business is buying and selling domains, or parking names that have type in traffic.)   But, i agree with the basic sentiment that having the right name / domain name is important, if not very important.  The writer is mistaken that the .XXX extension has been granted. http://www.micromart.co.uk/features/article/default.aspx?id=22516

Yet Another Reason to Buy J&J Stock

Danno writes: 

Danno_2  “”Watched a TV comercial this morning, advertising this website: http://www.discovernursing.com/

Johnson & Johnson ‘gets’ generic domain names. Maybe someone should invite the person in charge of their marketing to speak at domainfest about how generic domain names have added value to their business(s).”"

***FS***   So right Danno..  these folks have done a terrific job with Baby.com and all their names really.  They sooooo “get” it.  A few major corps have had marketing staff with great naming instincts.. I remember P&G had one of the biggest generic name portfolios back in the mid nineties.  They ultimately let many of those valuable names expire..  I scooped some of them up at the depth of the bust (ie. razorblades.com) .. They still own some of their big single word generics but many of their compound phrases expired.. I can only hypothesize that the individual who acquired their portfolio was let go or left to go to another company.

Weekend Linkfest

Everyone is Doing It

http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/07/everybodys-doing-it/

***FS*** Investing in domain names that is ;)

Domain Valuations : Chris Stewart

Domain Value (DV)=Traffic Value (TV)+Brand Value
(BV)+Utility Value (UV)+Discretionary Value (DiV) : Part 1
http://marketforlemons.com/?p=5

Via.com sells for 157,000.

(scroll down.) http://www.domainstate.com/showthread.php3?s=bf857a50211d7889c72645f54b38beb6&threadid=84867  Great name to build on.  Good price for buyer (fully valued for name-investor), esp if they are going to develop.  Via would be a good name  for a search engine or some kind of portal.  Lot of other possibilities.  Has meaning in multiple languages.

Danno_2 From Danno:

AfternicDLS Member Sells UI.com for $275K (nice story)

http://afternicdlsblog.com/2007/12/07/afternic-success-story-uicom-sells-for-275k/

 ***FS***  Still sooo much untapped opportunity in the name business for those who care to try. 

iREIT leaves the ICA

(Scroll down at the link.)
http://dnjournal.com/newsletters/2007/november.htm

***FS***  It was really more Bob Martin who was behind iReit’s participation in the ICA..  with Bob gone it’s no surprise the group dropped out.

Sedo.com now shows that invest.com sold for $ 1,015,000.

http://www.greatdomains.com/auction/auction_history.php?language=us&auction_id=21998&tracked=&partnerid=32392  Josh says :  I think the buyer got a good deal. You can buy a parking spot in Central London for  $50,000 – $90,000 and in some cases you’ll pay considerable monthly fees on it.  And to go with your parking space, you can buy this 3 bedroom, 3 bedroom flat for $13,000,000. http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&pid=059058&agentid=07711
Renewal fee each year on invest.com: $ 7.50 . Taxes and maintenance costs on your $13,000,000 flat in London: Priceless.

***FS***  Agree with J’man’s logic but as a wildcat investor (me) who has to front the 1mm,  the carrying charge is about 70k a year.. so I’d say the name’s fully valued from an invetor’s perspective.

Considerable controversy around the sale of Music.mobi.

Excerpt: “Constantine Giorgio Roussos thought he was the winner of Music.mobi in yesterday’s.mobi auction at Sedo. He bid $66,000. The auction ended and he received an automated invoice from Sedo. He then received a  “personal” e-mail from a Sedo employee (which also may have been automated). But then something happened. Sedo extended the auction due to a server slowdown in the final minutes of the auction.” The name was then sold to someone else who bid $616,000.  http://domainnamewire.com/2007/12/07/musicmobi-winner-vows-lawsuit-against-sedo/

***FS*** This is the classic fight over nothing.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a publicity stunt.

Opportunity Cost of Lost Opportunities.

Interesting article by Elliot Silver.  Sometimes you “overpay” now, and benefit later.  Perhaps you never overpaid in the first place. http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/12/07/opportunity-cost-of-lost-opportunities/

***FS***  Historically speaking, if the name was generic and got type-in-traffic, it was very hard to loose money in the domain biz..  the market has consistently caught up to your overpayment..  That won’t go on forever tho.

Light of Logic Creeping Through

New York Times David Pogue blasts companies that have chosen wierd and hard to remember company names.He points out plenty of hard to remember names. Trulia and Zillow are two better examples than “Fark” which is witty enough.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/technology/personaltech/06pogue-email.html?ex=1354683600&en=e08b6ea2e4dad1dd&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Danno_2Danno Sends Related

Seussical-Sounding Web Site Names

http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/the-dr-seuss-jumble-naming-web-sites/?hp 

***FS*** Nice to see people having that..  “hayyy… waita minute.  “  moment of logic setting in.  Most Web2 names are awful.

Eric Litman becomes Managing Director of WashingtonVC.

http://www.domainnews.com/general/2007120709/eric-litman-becomes-managing-director-of-washingtonvc/#more-1890

***FS***  Congrats Eric.

Where’s the money?

Excerpt: “”The venture (capital) industry is headed into a wall. All the best companies are being sold,” Deninger said. “For seven straight years, the number of companies going public has declined. That means the number of (prospective) buyers is also declining. Eventually, the VCs will have fewer companies that they can sell their companies to.”"  http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9830529-7.html?tag=nefd.blgs

***FS*** Blame SarbOx man ..  People are getting sloppy overpaying for nothing and the good stuff never sees the light of day..  Irony: Rules meant to protect investors only serve to make the rich richer and give said investors fewer opportunities.

Thursday Linkfest

Invest.com bid up to 431k at Auction

auction is still live. 4 hours to go, as of 10 a.m. EST. Friday, Dec 6, 07  Reserve is 200,000 – 499,999. http://www.greatdomains.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=21998&tracked=&partnerid=32392

***FS***  Great name..  This is fully valued from a wildcat-return investor’s perspective.

Which domain extensions have increased in value the fastest. 

Between 2004 – 2007. http://www.domainbits.com/increase-value All the data:  http://www.domainbits.com/data

***FS***Summary:  Buy .com’s

Whizzbang: Where to buy domains.

http://www.whizzbangsblog.com/content/view/335/86/

***FS*** still find deals on SEDO.com,  Afternic.com and GreatDomains.com

Verisign states that 146 million domain names registered across all TLD’s.

12 million in the last quarter. http://www.dnjournal.com/archive/lowdown/2007/dailyposts/12-05-07.htm Josh

***FS***  Most of the 12mm new names were discovered through tasting ..  and (very very important) only 5-10% of all 146mm names are worth anything whatsoever.. to any more than one distinctive entity.  That means there are just 7 – 14 million investment grade names available to the world.. How many do you own?

Alvaro Albarracin goes on a .mobi speculation shopping spree.

http://www.conceptualist.com/2007/12/06/alvaro-albarracin-breaks-dotmobi-sales-record/

MUSIC.MOBI = USD 616K
GAMES.MOBI = USD 401K
SPORTS.MOBI = USD 101K
MOVIES.MOBI = USD 82K
PHOTOS.MOBI = USD 51K
VIDEOS.MOBI = USD 51K

Alvaro says “I am not planning on developing these names,  I am planing on selling these sometime in the near  future.” .. 

***FS***Sell Alvaro ..  run like the wind and sell.  This man will be joining Dr. Van Neeste in the land of irrelevance shortly

Pubcon coverage.  Domaining.

Effective Domain name strategies  http://www.seroundtable.com/archives/015575.html

***FS***  These are good beginnings..  bet that a handful of folks had the light-bulb domaining moment.. 

Domains and trademarks.

Clark Walton, Esq. – Domain Name Law http://www.seroundtable.com/archives/015574.html

***FS***  Synopsis of presentation provides interesting insight into lawyer’s thinking, tactics.. Most domainers I know don’t run from lawyers.. They have lawyers too  :)   In 7 years I’ve found that you are more likely to be challenged by an over-reaching lawyer on a legitimate registration that you are to be backed into a corner over a name you really shouldn’t own.

Bruce Clay’s take on Richard Rosenblatt’s keynote

http://www.bruceclay.com/blog/archives/2007/12/keynote_address.html

***FS***  I like Richard Rosenblatt..  He’s a one in ten million character..  One of the most charismatic people I have ever drank Patron with / met.

Pubcon coverage links above via Sahar.

http://www.conceptualist.com/2007/12/06/pubcon-coverage-effective-domaining-strategies/

***FS***  Thanks Sahar!

Domain industry events listed.  Til May 2008.

http://www.domainnews.com/industry-events/

***FS***Nice summary to bookmark on DomainNews.com

Domain Truffles.

Josh says: Michael Berkens talks about domains as commodities and collectibles.  As well, he highlights the notion of quality by briefly discussing buying oil paintings at a flea market as compared to going to Art Basel in Miami, where 500 million dollars worth of art is expected to sell in just 4 days. He likes truffles, too.  Btw, Michael, it was a dog and not a pig that found the giant truffle that recently sold at auction in Macau. http://www.thedomains.com/2007/12/05/domain-truffles-2/

***FS***Berkens is an attorney turned domainer..  He has great insight into the value proposition that meaningful generic names represent.  Love the truffle analogy Mike.

Moniker Pubcon auction results.

Monte continues to move auctions outside of the  domain investment community.  That’s a good thing. http://www.domainstate.com/showthread.php3?s=&threadid=84850
GrandPa.com – $55,000
FamilyServices.com – $45,000
MortgageRates.org — $17,000
BlindDating.com — $14,000
ComputerDiscounts.com – $10,000
More sales results of other names here: http://www.domainnamenews.com/events/moniker-pubcon-2007-auction-results/1328#more-1328

Tips for finding brandable domain names. 

by Bill Eisenmann.
Excerpt: “”Not everyone is looking for keyword rich, generic domain names. Many Internet startups are looking for a simple, catchy name or phrase to build their online identity around. Brandable, web 2.0 style domain names have gained popularity in recent years mostly due to the explosion of social-networking sites. http://availabledomainnames.com/2007/tips-for-finding-brandable-domain-names/

***FS***  Everybody wants traffic..  Everybody..  Whether they say it or not..  whether they know it or not..  nobody wakes up in the morning, says “I want to start a website that nobody will visit”.  Nothing happens on the Internet without traffic.  Generic keyword style domain names get a primer-level of organic type in traffic for nothing more than the keyword weight or gravity of the name itself.  Those are the “catchy”, “brandable” and “cool-sounding” names which constitute the 5-10% of all names registered which are worth anything at all..  Those are the names you want.

Domain Tools Auction

Jay responds to auction criticisms, reduces after auction pricing reduction for names that don’t sell to 10% reduction from previously stated 20% reduction, and drops his commission to 9 % from 10%. http://blog.domaintools.com/2007/12/auction-rules/

Joshsays: Read the post for more details and other info.  One of the things that Jay says is they they will do alot of pre auction promotion, to generate interest.  Thing is, the cut off date for name submissions is Christmas eve, and the auction is on January 3rd.  ?. Jay retains exclusive rights to sell the domain for 60 days after the auction.

***FS***  It’s his sandbox..  and he needs some kind of tool to discourage off-block sales after auction close.  Understand the sellers POV too tho.

Facebook bows to pressure about Beacon Ads.

Allows users to turn them off completely.  How many will turn it off?  Choice. http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9051119&intsrc=hm_ts_head
http://yro.slashdot.org/yro/07/12/05/2114247.shtml

***FS***  Josh Quitner was unfairly silenced on this..  It’s Facebook who deserved the slap-down IMO.  http://valleywag.com/tech/media/facebooks-foolish-foes-330424.php

Nokia to continue to invest in online services

.. to add value to their phones. http://www.news.com/Nokia-sets-eyes-on-Internet-to-support-handsets/2100-1039_3-6221589.html?tag=nefd.top

***FS***  Nokia is in trouble long-term..  They don’t have the software..  Anyone can make hardware.

WIPO Increasingly Says Okay to Using Trademark Brands as Protest Tools

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/internet/0,1000000097,39291329,00.htm

This is the kind of direction we need to see more of..  It’s an unhealthy and unsafe dynamic when brand holders can beat you up because you told the world “their brand stinks” via a website which incorporates their brand-name.  Taken to it’s illogical conclusion, we’d have to invent codewords to talk about the products and services we dislike. 

“”There is a certain inevitability” that more and more of the sites will be allowed, according to Wilbers. Companies will have to go along with it, he said, because there are too many sites and alternate sub-domains to police their branding effectively.

“Whether they like it or not, the internet is being used for such purposes,”"

Ya gotta love Free-speech.  Power to the people..  What the Internet is all about.

Domain Extensions – You Can’t Change Human Behavior

You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink..  Insert your favorite related Mark Twain quote here.. 

Snoopy on domainstate.com is a pretty clever chap. He’s put together some info on how how particular domain extensions have performed over the last couple of years (in relation to 3 letter names). Interesting how the more established extensions generally seem to perform best year after year yet still people invest money into extensions such .info/.biz etc,

http://domainstate.com/showthread.php3?s=&threadid=84814

***FS*** This is an interesting human behavior Snoopy has touched on..  It’s a similar dynamic that makes folks go long a stock as opposed to short, and the same kind of logic that has folks surging into stocks when they’re high as opposed to falling (fallen).

Web 2.0 Bubble? – Must See Video

http://www.namestrategy.com/domains/bubble-20-video-talks-about-domain-names.html 

  Hilarious actually..  linked on Joe Davidosn’s blog..  and as joe points out,  I get a mini supporting role.